NOAA forecasts below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season due to El Nino.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 55% chance of below-average Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2026 season, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms. The outlook is driven by a developing El Nino expected to suppress storm formation. Forecasters emphasize that a below-average season does not eliminate the risk of destructive landfalls.
13
Divergence score
7 outlets covered it, splitting into 6 framing camps across 3 bias groups.
6 camps
3 bias groups
The spectrum · how 7 outlets placed this story
LeftCenterRight
AP News
PBS NewsHour
NPR
CNN
ABC News
The Hill
NY Post
Supportive of action
Neutral
Dismissive
Critical
Alarmist
International angle
Widest split · the two outlets furthest apart, and who published first
Furthest apart on this story
NPR
Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high
fewer storms but high risk remains · neutral
NY Post
2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast revealed as Super El Nino looms
Super El Nino looms over forecast · neutral
First to report
- CNNfirst
- ABC News+7.3 h
- NPR+8.6 h
- NY Post+8.8 h
- PBS NewsHour+12.1 h
- The Hill+16.0 h
By each outlet's earliest publish time in this story. Feeds that index slowly can appear later than they printed.
The split, in one line
Most outlets lead with the below-average forecast driven by El Nino. NPR and CNN emphasize that it only takes one storm and highlight climate change context, while others focus narrowly on the numbers.
How each outlet covered it
Broad agreement on what happened
Outlets across the spectrum land in roughly the same place: the shared language is highlighted.
13LOW DIVERGENCE
THE RIGHT
“2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast revealed as Super El Nino looms”NYP NY Post RIGHT
DOWN THE MIDDLE
“WATCH: NOAA forecasts milder Atlantic hurricane season thanks to El Nino” · AP News, PBS NewsHour, The Hill
+Hide the full sourcingSee how all 7 outlets put it
LEFT2
NPRNPR Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high 114d ago CNNCNN Thank El Nino for NOAA's latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season 114d ago LEFT-CENTER1
ABCABC News 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says 114d ago 7 tracked claims across 7 outlets
Fact ledger
All7Corroborated7
7/7
Corroborated
NOAA forecasts 8 to 14 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Corroborated
Disputed
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