NOAA forecasts below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season due to El Nino.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 55% chance of below-average Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2026 season, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms. The outlook is driven by a developing El Nino expected to suppress storm formation. Forecasters emphasize that a below-average season does not eliminate the risk of destructive landfalls.
13
Divergence score
7 outlets covered it, splitting into 6 framing camps across 3 bias groups.
6 camps
3 bias groups
The spectrum · how 7 outlets placed this story
LeftCenterRight
AP News
PBS NewsHour
NPR
CNN
ABC News
The Hill
NY Post
Supportive of action
Neutral
Dismissive
Critical
Alarmist
International angle
The split, in one line
Most outlets lead with the below-average forecast driven by El Nino. NPR and CNN emphasize that it only takes one storm and highlight climate change context, while others focus narrowly on the numbers.
How each outlet covered it
Broad agreement on what happened
Outlets across the spectrum land in roughly the same place: the shared language is highlighted.
13LOW DIVERGENCE
THE RIGHT
“2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast revealed as Super El Nino looms”NYP NY Post RIGHT
DOWN THE MIDDLE
“WATCH: NOAA forecasts milder Atlantic hurricane season thanks to El Nino” · AP News, PBS NewsHour, The Hill
+Hide the full sourcingSee how all 7 outlets put it
LEFT2
NPRNPR Forecasters expect slightly fewer hurricanes than usual this year, but the risk of destructive storms is still high 45d ago CNNCNN Thank El Nino for NOAA's latest forecast for Atlantic hurricane season 45d ago LEFT-CENTER1
ABCABC News 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says 45d ago Tracked claims from across the political spectrum
Fact ledger
Corroborated
Disputed