New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 47% in Texas Senate race.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released on June 30, 2026 shows Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican candidate Ken Paxton deadlocked at 47% each in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The open-seat race is to replace Senator John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. The poll shows demographic splits along gender, race, age, and education lines.
53
Divergence score
3 outlets covered it, splitting into 3 framing camps across 2 bias groups.
3 camps
2 bias groups
The spectrum · how 3 outlets placed this story
LeftCenterRight
Washington Times
Breitbart
New York Times
Supportive of action
Neutral
Dismissive
Critical
Alarmist
International angle
The split, in one line
The right frames Talarico as a trans-obsessed phony whose lead has collapsed, while the center-right notes Democrats see an opening fueled by Trump frustration and Paxton's baggage. The Times focuses on Talarico's corruption and affordability attacks on Paxton.
How each outlet covered it
Lightly covered so far
Too few outlets to map a left-right split. Here is each take as it stands.
Sparse coverage · 3 outlets
“Talarico Seizes on Paxton Tabloid Story to Test Corruption Attacks in Texas Senate Race”
“Talarico, Paxton deadlocked in new poll as Democrats eye historic Texas Senate upset”
“Nolte: James 'God Is Non-binary' Talarico Loses Lead in TX Senate Race”
7 tracked claims across 3 outlets
Fact ledger
All7Claimed5Corroborated2
1/3
Claimed
A University of Texas poll shows Paxton leading Talarico 43% to 42%, after previously showing Talarico up 8 points in April.
Corroborated
Disputed
6 more tracked claimsSign up free to see the full ledger