When the analyzer tags a story with tickers and a bullish or bearish read, this page checks what the stock did next. Every call from the last 120 days with relevance 50 or higher is measured at 1, 5, 20, and 40 trading days, raw and relative to SPY over the same window. A hit is a move in the called direction. The misses are published with the hits.
Raw hit rate counts a move in the called direction. The SPY-relative columns subtract SPY's move over the same trading days first, so a bullish call in a rising market gets no credit for the rise.
| Trading days | n | Hit | Avg adj | Hit vs SPY | Avg vs SPY | Median |move| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 417 | 45.8% | +0.01% | 50.1% | +0.06% | 1.49% |
| 5 | 379 | 48.0% | +0.38% | 49.3% | +0.42% | 3.21% |
| 20 | 268 | 51.9% | +1.08% | 54.9% | +1.2% | 6.63% |
| 40 | 247 | 55.5% | +2.12% | 56.3% | +2.45% | 7.16% |
Bullish and bearish calls separately. Bearish calls fight the market drift, so their SPY-relative numbers are the cleaner test.
| Group | n | 5d hit | 20d hit | 40d hit | 20d vs SPY | 40d vs SPY | 40d avg vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bearish | 224 | 43.4% | 44.0% | 50.8% | 52.2% | 61.5% | +6.42% |
| bullish | 193 | 53.0% | 59.7% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 51.2% | -1.43% |
The question this site exists to ask: are stories outlets disagree about better or worse calls?
| Group | n | 5d hit | 20d hit | 40d hit | 20d vs SPY | 40d vs SPY | 40d avg vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high (35+) | 30 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 71.4% | 42.9% | 71.4% | +1.48% |
| low (<20) | 292 | 48.7% | 53.7% | 54.7% | 57.3% | 56.2% | +3.32% |
| mid (20-34) | 95 | 50.6% | 44.4% | 53.1% | 44.4% | 50.0% | -2.59% |
Does a stronger relevance score mean a better call?
| Group | n | 5d hit | 20d hit | 40d hit | 20d vs SPY | 40d vs SPY | 40d avg vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-69 | 79 | 46.4% | 50.0% | 59.5% | 52.6% | 67.6% | +3.17% |
| 70+ | 338 | 48.4% | 52.2% | 54.8% | 55.2% | 54.3% | +2.32% |
Direction-adjusted return relative to SPY, 20 trading days where the call is old enough, otherwise 5.
Direction-adjusted return relative to SPY, 20 trading days where the call is old enough, otherwise 5.