Market signal backtest

Did the calls predict anything?

When the analyzer tags a story with tickers and a bullish or bearish read, this page checks what the stock did next. Every call from the last 120 days with relevance 50 or higher is measured at 1, 5, 20, and 40 trading days, raw and relative to SPY over the same window. A hit is a move in the called direction. The misses are published with the hits.

Ticker-events

479

From 335 events across 198 symbols. Longer horizons have fewer samples because recent calls have not aged yet.

5-day hit rate

49.6%

Coin flip is 50%. Relative to SPY: 50.4% on 417 samples.

40-day hit rate

54.5%

Raw, on 198 samples. Relative to SPY: 54.0%. The gap between the two is the market's own drift.

40-day return vs SPY

-3.11%

Average direction-adjusted excess return. Positive means the call beat simply holding the market, before costs.

By horizon

Raw hit rate counts a move in the called direction. The SPY-relative columns subtract SPY's move over the same trading days first, so a bullish call in a rising market gets no credit for the rise.

Trading days	n	Hit	Avg adj	Hit vs SPY	Avg vs SPY	Median \|move\|
1	479	47.6%	-0.04%	48.9%	-0.01%	1.29%
5	417	49.6%	+0.08%	50.4%	+0.09%	2.49%
20	347	50.1%	+0.21%	51.3%	+0.34%	5.51%
40	198	54.5%	-3.08%	54.0%	-3.11%	7.36%

By call

Bullish and bearish calls separately. Bearish calls fight the market drift, so their SPY-relative numbers are the cleaner test.

Group	n	5d hit	20d hit	40d hit	20d vs SPY	40d vs SPY	40d avg vs SPY
bearish	253	44.3%	42.9%	48.6%	47.6%	48.6%	-7.86%
bullish	226	55.6%	58.9%	62.1%	55.7%	60.9%	+2.96%

By divergence

The question this site exists to ask: are stories outlets disagree about better or worse calls?

Group	n	5d hit	20d hit	40d hit	20d vs SPY	40d vs SPY	40d avg vs SPY
high (35+)	59	35.4%	36.6%	68.8%	39.0%	68.8%	-4.05%
low (<20)	268	52.2%	52.8%	60.9%	54.9%	60.9%	-3.69%
mid (20-34)	152	50.4%	50.5%	35.2%	49.5%	33.3%	-1.44%

By relevance score

Does a stronger relevance score mean a better call?

Group	n	5d hit	20d hit	40d hit	20d vs SPY	40d vs SPY	40d avg vs SPY
50-69	121	47.5%	45.5%	52.3%	46.6%	50.0%	+0.75%
70+	358	50.3%	51.7%	55.2%	52.9%	55.2%	-4.21%

How to read this

Entry is the first close on or after the event date, so a story that broke after the bell is measured from the next day. Excess return subtracts SPY over the identical window. No costs, slippage, or survivorship handling. Sample sizes are small and one earnings move can swing a bucket; the 40-day buckets are the smallest because only calls at least two months old qualify. This is a published check on the analyzer's own calls, not a strategy and not investment advice. Refreshed every 6 hours; last run 2026-10-29 06:01 UTC.

No price data for: ANDURIL, ANT, ARAMCO, BIMB, BMWYY, BRP, CPLD, LFC, LYC, NPPEF, OIL, OZON, RHPP, RKH, RWE, SAAB, SAU, SDZ, SIE, SIX.

Best calls

Direction-adjusted return relative to SPY, 20 trading days where the call is old enough, otherwise 5.

MSCPanama Canal Authority announces daily transit cuts due to El Niño drought2026-08-27 · bearish · relevance 62 · divergence 17 · 20d+50.56%

MRNAFDA approves updated COVID-19 vaccines for higher-risk groups.2026-08-28 · bullish · relevance 78 · divergence 9 · 20d+43.21%

GETYGetty Images terminates $3.7 billion merger with Shutterstock after UK antitrust requires sale of editorial business.2026-07-09 · bearish · relevance 88 · divergence 0 · 20d+42.55%

PARACalifornia AG Bonta cancels Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger settlement talks2026-08-27 · bearish · relevance 72 · divergence 33 · 20d+41.46%

PARAParamount considers leaving California if state blocks Warner Bros. Discovery merger.2026-07-14 · bearish · relevance 82 · divergence 17 · 20d+40.45%

PARATwelve states file lawsuit to block Paramount Skydance's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.2026-07-14 · bearish · relevance 88 · divergence 33 · 20d+40.45%

SSTKGetty Images terminates $3.7 billion merger with Shutterstock after UK antitrust requires sale of editorial business.2026-07-09 · bearish · relevance 88 · divergence 0 · 20d+34.54%

IMAXChristopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' opens with $264.1 million global debut.2026-07-17 · bullish · relevance 72 · divergence 17 · 20d+30.28%

Worst calls

Direction-adjusted return relative to SPY, 20 trading days where the call is old enough, otherwise 5.

GMEOil prices fluctuate as U.S.-Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping2026-08-28 · bearish · relevance 78 · divergence 33 · 20d-34.32%

METANew Zealand proposes bill banning children under 16 from social media2026-08-27 · bearish · relevance 52 · divergence 17 · 20d-31.44%

METABipartisan backlash against AI data centers reshapes 2026 midterm elections.2026-08-27 · bearish · relevance 72 · divergence 53 · 20d-31.44%

METATreasury Secretary Bessent doubles long-bond buyback program amid surging yields2026-08-27 · bearish · relevance 85 · divergence 47 · 20d-31.44%

AMDTrump administration considers new round of semiconductor tariffs2026-08-28 · bearish · relevance 78 · divergence 17 · 20d-30.8%

MRVLBroadcom forecasts Q4 revenue below estimates while Q3 AI chip sales triple2026-09-03 · bearish · relevance 85 · divergence 17 · 20d-30.6%

MSFTMicrosoft cuts 4,800 jobs including major Xbox division restructuring.2026-07-09 · bearish · relevance 78 · divergence 17 · 20d-27.81%

ONONKylian Mbappé signs with Swiss sportswear brand On, ending his Nike partnership.2026-09-18 · bearish · relevance 72 · divergence 17 · 20d-27.27%

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